Vermont Yankee plus renewables best-case scenario, study says

NUCLEONICS WEEK APRIL 15, 2010  Copyright © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies 

Extending Vermont Yankee’s operating life while “aggressively” pursuing renewable energy and efficiency options appears to be the best way to keep utility rates down and employment up in Vermont, according to a report released last month.

 The executive summary of the report, “Consensus Economic and Fiscal Impact Analyses Associated with the Future of the Vermont Yankee Power Plant,” compares several different energy scenarios in the state with and without power produced from Vermont Yankee through 2040.

 The report was requested by the Joint Fiscal Committee of Vermont’s General Assembly. It was prepared by Vermont-based consulting firms Economic & Policy Resources and Kavet, Rockler & Associates, in collaboration with Synapse Energy Economics, the Vermont Department of Public Service, Green Mountain Power, and Central Vermont Public Service Corp.

 Catherine Benham, assistant fiscal officer of the Joint Fiscal Committee, said in an interview April 8 that the document was intended to help state legislators in their discussion of Vermont Yankee’s future.  The plant’s operation is uncertain past 2012, when its NRC operating license and state certificate of public good expire. Vermont’s state Senate voted in February against giving the company the permission required for the plant to operate beyond 2012, although proponents hope to reverse that.

 The study found that license renewal for Vermont Yankee, along with adopting aggressive renewable energy policies, “yields the largest average positive employment and other economic impacts, with the immediate job gains, no job losses and lower longer term power bills.”

 By the end of the forecast period in 2040, keeping Vermont Yankee open while pursuing renewable power would result in an additional 2,600 jobs per year and nearly $400 million in gross state product per year (calculated in 2012 dollars) than in a scenario where the license is renewed and state energy policies remain unchanged.

 In another scenario, the document assumes the plant would be placed in long-term storage in 2012 and that renewable energy as well as efficiency efforts would continue at the current pace.  The study expected that Vermont would have a net loss of around 1,060 jobs between 2013 and 2031, and retail power bills were likely to be higher, further reducing jobs in the state at a rate of around 120 per year and reducing economic output by more than $15 million per year.

 In another scenario considered, the study assumes Vermont Yankee is placed in long-term storage in 2012, and the state adopts very aggressive policies in support of renewable energy development and energy efficiency measures.  In that scenario, the study says employment levels in the first decade of the analytic period (2010-2020) would have the loss of plant-related jobs as outlined in the previous scenario.  But then job growth rapidly outpaces the Vermont Yankee license renewal scenario over the final 17 years.

 But while employment generally moves up, so do electricity prices in the first five years.  Power rates in the later years toward the end of the study period in 2040 are expected to drop as consumers buy less power and competitive power source fuel prices.  The drop in demand is expected to be driven by fossil fuel price increases and national greenhouse gas limits.—Suzanne McElligott, Washington